EB2 India Green Card Prediction - Charles Oppenheim (Jan 2022 Bulletin)

Originally published at: EB2 India Green Card Prediction - Charles Oppenheim (Jan 2022 Bulletin) - USA

EB2 is now moving faster than EB3 India in Dec 2021 visa bulletin. This is actually a result of the weird US immigration which intentionally plays the “see-saw” game with applicants. As per a recent tweet by David Bier, it seems USCIS does not know how to count unique i140s. This probably means that are…

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hi anil

my Eb2 PD is june 2010 and i got my EAD last month in EB2.

Now in this month bulletin the final action dates are moved forward and EB3 final action date is current for my EB2 PD.
so my current status is EB3 FA date current for my EB2 PD and 5 months behind in EB2 FA date.
can i downgrade at this moment from eb2 to eb3 while having eb2 EAD in hand? is it a good idea?
if yes, what is the process and how long it will take?
please advise

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I don’t think there is any restriction in filing EB3 i140 at this time as long as your Employer is ready to sponsor it.

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Hi there,
My eb2 priority date is August 2015.
Is there any chance of that being the date of filing in fiscal year 2022, for eb3?
I am planning to switch job, and the new employer will take time to apply perm. So should I wait in the current job and apply downgrade to eb3 after Oct 2021, if there is any chance?
Thanks.

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If I were you, i would wait. Don’t miss the boat when it comes onshore on Oct 21.

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What happens when let’s say EB3 FAD by Sept 21 remains only until 01Dec2012 and doesn’t reach the dates in the filing chart dates, will uscis still move the Dates For Filing chart beyond 01Jan14 in Oct 2021? Won’t the spillover be used to issue GCs to the folks waiting with approved i-485 in the current fiscal year?
@anil_am22 how does this work? Thanks!

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The green card will only be issued if the date gets current in FAD.

If it doesn’t, the pending i485 will stay pending. There is no guarantee of dates movement.

The last time May 2010 was current was in 2012. Most people filed i485 at that time but then dates moved back and have now reached May 2010 again after about 9 years.

All this time, those people were just waiting.

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@anil_am22 , Why are you predicting so conservatively for the movement of EB3 dates (say in June 2021 bulletin)? Charlie himself said that he expects date to advance aggressively and probably more than May bulletin (5 months)?

Also, how are you coming up with an Oct 2021 prediction of EB3 as Jan 1 2015 and not more?

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Also, @anil_am22 , assuming Charlie’s prediction of 135K additional GCs available to EB (spillover from FB) + Eb1 being current + potential EB4 spillovers, what’s your best guestimate of Oct 2021 bulletin for EB2 nd EB3 India? Thanks in advance and I must say your blogs are really helpful.

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@anil_am22 yes, pls respond to Sujeet’s comment when you get a chance. We all want to hear your best estimate of Oct 21 bulletin. Thanks!

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I think @anil_am22 has always been conservative. I like that he is conservative and proven right rather than sounding too ambitious. Honestly, no one knows whats going to happen until Sep 2021.

Hi @Mandeep_Raj

Both Sep 2021 and Oct 2021 visa bulletin estimates are available on this page.

Please note that these are estimates and can be wrong as pointed by other members that even USCIS does not know the exact numbers.

So, just use these dates for keeping your i485 documents prepared.

The dates will change if USCIS does not use the full spillover this year and wastes GC numbers. Nobody can guess that but we have kept a wastage of 10% GCs in calculations even though the 2020 wastage was at 5%.

This is to make sure that we do a conservative estimate.

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Makes sense. Thanks!

Hi Bhaskar,

I am in same situation, what is your advise? Do you think our date will be current in Oct 2021.
What did you decide? I am very confused too.
Thanks!

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Hi Anil,

My PD is Jun 2015 in EB2. I got a new job opportunity and very confused weather to take it or not.

Current Employer - will downgrade if my date is current in EB3.
Future Employer - ready to process GC.

Should I take up future employer as he is ready to start GC or should I wait till Oct 2021 bulletin?

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Its good to be conservative, but I think the hopes are getting up with the US Dept of State Consular Affairs themselves giving a much more positive outlook. This is a direct response from them on their YouTube channel (dated 26 April 2021):

U.S. Department of State: Consular Affairs

4 days ago

Yes, we do expect the India EB-2 preference category to reach the May 2011 Application Filing Date within the next several months. We do not expect the India EB-3 Final Action Date to retrogress, and there is an excellent chance that the January 2014 India EB-3 Application Filing Date will be reached by September.

(post withdrawn by author, will be automatically deleted in 24 hours unless flagged)

I hope/pray it happens that EB3 goes to Jan 2014. Not sure how that is possible and why EB2 folks wouldn’t downgrade if they see this happening. And if people have already downgraded a lot, why wouldnt EB2 also go all the way to 2013 or 2014. USCIS logic doesn’t make too much of sense.

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Some of them missed the boat only due to waiting. But if final action date of EB3 keeps moving as predicted by USCIS, all of them would who didn’t downgrade would do so then as it would give them GC without any wait time.

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hi ,

Is there a chance of May 2018 PD being current in Filling date chart for Oct 2021 bulletin. I am asking as i want to change jobs and don’t want to be left in lurch as dates are being moved.

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