EB2 India Green Card Prediction - Oct 2022 Bulletin

Originally published at: EB2 India Green Card Prediction - Oct 2022 Bulletin - USA

USCIS is aiming to use all 280k available Green card numbers by the end of Sep 30, 2022. Whether they will be able to achieve it or not is another question but they do share this intent almost 2-3 times a month. If it happens, then most of the people waiting in EB2 India between…

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214 posts were split to a new topic: EB2 India Predictions for Green Card - 2021

Your app cant predict the dates accurately, because USICS always acts in a different way. So far, I haven’t see any time your app predicted, it’s not your app fault, but USICS methods.

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Hi @abdul_molla

Thanks for the feedback. It happens as USCIS uses manual method and probably moves dates based on political and other factors that are out of control.

They also probably hold the dates based on their assumptions about how many ROW (rest of world) numbers are needed which is just a wild speculation.

If they go by actual i140 numbers, the app prediction will probably be a lot closer to reality.

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It is working. But it gives earlier date when I put 50% wastage and a later date when I put 25% wastage. I don’t understand why

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It happens because if there is less wastage, then EB2 may get more GCs than EB3.

  1. EB2 gets more spillover as a whole as it gets it from EB1 (and eb1 gets it from EB 4). So, overall, EB2 gets a big chunk.
  2. EB3 has a very low chance of getting any spillover as it only gets it from EB2. Since EB2 is already so much backlogged, it may never send any spill to EB3.

So, if there is less wastage overall, the EB2 will win in the long run.

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Hi AnilI think I didn’t put it correctly perhaps. What I meant was when the wastage is 50% it shows my pd in 2014 as reachable in Aug 2022 but if I put it as 25% wastage then it shows it reachable in May 2023. Surely with less wastage it should reach earlier right? Or am I missing something?

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Hi @manoj010768

As I explained earlier, it is not a simple linear math calculation. I would also think that with less wastage, I should get the GC faster in the same queue but it does not happen like that if you consider the vertical (top->down and bottom->up spilling).

With less wastage, more will get used by EB2 than EB3. If that happens, more people will jump from EB3 to EB2 and hence will affect your time if you do not jump.

All of this can be completely wasted if they decide to change dates with their own wish (as they are holding EB3 at this time).

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Thanks. I really appreciate your app and the data you have put on there. It gives a kind of glimpse into future.

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Worst check (50% wastage) predicts my GC date in 2027, and average check (25% wastage) predicts my GC date in 2031? Something is wrong in the logic.

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Please ignore my above query. I just realized you have already clarified the reason for it.

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The article says that an EB2 retrogression is expected in September 2022. Can @anil_am22 or someone provide an estimate of what the Month/Year would be retrogressed to?

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What article you’re referring to? Link?

The text in question is “Retrogression in EB2 is expected by Sep 22.”.

Why Retrogression in EB2 when USCIS says, they have 290K for this year and won’t move to EB3 unless EB2 backlog is cleared.
Infact today they move EB2 DOF to 1st Sep 2014 and I expect they move the dates to Mid of 2015 by Sep 2022, if they try to utilize maximum no. of Green Cards

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The app takes visa wastage in account. Retrogression may be due to the visa numbers wasted by USCIS. In Q1 2022, they only approved 33k EB I-485. So my estimate is that USCIS may not be able to use more than 160K GC this year wasting more than 120K.

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Hi @anil_am22, Forum Members,

My Green card was filed in EB2 India category with the priority date of 02 Feb 2013 (which is current now).

As dates were moving very slowly till starting 2020 so in Jan 2020, I changed the employer and moved to Canada as my canadian PR was about to expire.

As I will be eligible for canadian citizenship in january 2023 so I wanted to pursue it before moving to the USA.

My question is if I move to the USA in January 2024 which is approx 2 Years from now. Can I still retain my 2013 EB2 priority date? Please advise.

Best Regards

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Is your I-140 approved from current employer? Or you are planning on finding H1B employer in 2024 and then file I-140?
You should be able to retain your PD however, USCIS expects the beneficiary to file for AOS within one year of the PD getting current unless the circumstances are beyond your control.

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Hi @Kalpesh_Dalwadi
Thank you for your response!
I have to find a new employer in 2024 and then file I-140. Just wondering, Are you aware of any success stories with similar scenarios?

Best Regards

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You may want to google or lookup on Quora or Reddit etc.

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