I am in EB2…Do you see May 2018 becoming current for EB3 in October 2021 or early 2022?
2 Likes
EB3 might hit 2018 in Oct 2021. But I think people who have not downgraded have missed the bus.
1 Like
That’s extremely ambitious.
5 Likes
Hi folks,
My priority is India EB2 2017 October with Employer A. I am considering a different opportunity with Employer B who is a big firm ready to process GC. Do you think I may miss the boat if I move to Employer B. Is there a chance EB2 will hit current this year or next year. Even if it is next year I may be ready to wait that being the case. I am also not sure if my current employer does downgrade
1 Like
I completely agree with @anil_am22. To me that sounds outrageous.
2 Likes
Use this app for suggestions on when to file EB2 to EB3 downgrade.
The app makes projections using AI for your PD date.
3 Likes
I think that’s a good guess. My logic is - atleast about 80% eb2 Indians whose PD was Jan 2015 or earlier, must have downgraded to eb3. Hence, the eb2 backlog till Jan 2015 might have been flushed out or can be flushed out pretty soon. Now, china eb2 filing date is July 2017 and chances are high that it will keep moving forward for China.
Come FY2022, given that atleast 135K (my guess is 150K) will spill over. No other category besides India EB2 will get most of those visa and hence, even if we consider a jump of 3 years for EB2 india…it might touch Dec 2017 or Jan 2018. And rest of spill over might go to eb3 india and it might touch late 2017.
To clarify - I am talking about date of filing (not FAD).
To me, even the 3rd step of ead/AP is the most important milestone.
Please shed light on this reasoning @anil_am22
1 Like
I am glad to see optimism here, but would be great if you can explain why you think so ? Why you think eb3 might hit 2018 starting fy 2022 ?!
Hi @Anil,
My EB2 priority date is Sep 2017. A question. Suppose I move to new Employer B and the new employer has not yet finished Labor certification/I140. The EB2 priority date all of a sudden became current (just the filing date), final action date is not current yet. Can my H1B be extended ? I wonder if the EB2 priority date would advance so quickly for India to 2017 or am i getting worried unnecessarily .
Hey, I am in the same Boat. My EB2 priority date is May 2018. H1b 6 years will be over by March 2022. I am not sure either if I should stat downgrading process to EB3 now or wait and get the extension and then apply for it.
1 Like
Hey Guys,
newbie here. my priority date is May 2018 in EB2 category. A little bit about myself: Indian, masters Computer Science, 15 years work experience, 2 kids (6th grader/KG) and homemaker wife.
I came US in June 2016 and spent so far almost 5 years in here. I have been constantly worried about what will happen with my kids college education as with current pace I am not sure if I will be getting the green card in next 10 years or even more.
I have also been thinking to switch to a company like Infy/TCS etc and work in international locations as manager and then again get the GC filed in EB1 category (of course it’s not a cake walk) or hire an attorney and proof that i am eligible for EB1 category (have management experience with PMP certification etc.).
Whats your ideas?
Please advice,
thanks a lot for reading through, appreciate it.
I am not an expert, but 2018 for EB2 seems a very far fetched dream. To me it looks like EB3 could advance around 2015-2016 range and EB2 can go 2013-2014 range.
2 Likes
Your new estimates are highly conservative for Oct 2021. What motivated the change? You are not expecting eb3 to move past Jun 2011?
1 Like
You can try it yourself by adjusting various factors that affect the visa bulletin dates.
They are now available on this GC estimator app here.
You will need to enter your PD date and then:
- Use default settings or
- Change based on your understanding of what will happen in the coming months.
This will show you the VB predictions as per your selections with the AI algorithm from the app. It tries to mimic the way USCIS allocates GCs between EB2 and EB3.
This prediction trend will be available for your PD date on the suggestions page once you click ‘estimate my GC date’.
Scroll down on the estimation results page to see this graph that was generated for your set-up
This way, you can see the trend based on what you think will happen in Oct 2021 rather than what others believe.
Thanks for all the work you do. I am anxious to see now if your estimates come to true for Jun 2021 bulletin or Charlie’ zubaan(that we will move by atleast 5 months for Eb3 in Jun 2021).
When CO(Department of state) comes up with Oct 2021 Visa bulletin to estimate the Date of filling for next fiscal year, would they consider the downgrades from EB2 to EB3 and reduce that count from EB2 ? … As an example, 2012 and 2013 have around 50K in EB2 and around 10K in EB3(Original Filings), If the spill over is 150K with 50K allocated to each Employment category, Will CO only move 1 year for EB2(considering each application could use 2 GC numbers) or recalculate the numbers assuming around 20K downgraded to EB3 making EB2 count only 30K and moving 2 years ?
EB3 final action date has jumped to Nov 2011 (This is a 9 month jump) and is truly unprecedented.
@anil_am22 , it will be interesting to see how you revise the OCT 2021 predictions. We just got a huge boost of hope of folks in EB3 line.
Its really interesting times now. I think most EB2 folks would still not downgrade as 2011 and early 2012 still have a better chance staying in EB2.
Hi @Sujeet_Kumar_Singh and @SJ60UT
It will be interesting to see how many downgrade and how many get i140 approved.
I think USCIS will count them and include in their VB projections once EB2 to EB3 i140s are approved.
At least, i believe so keeping in mind the fast movement in EB3 final action dates in June 2021.
6 Likes
Hi @anil_am22 ,
My PD is Aug-2012 in EB2 category India. I have not downgraded to EB3. Do you think I missed an opportunity to get GC this year?
What is the probability of EB2 India moving to mid-2012 this year?
Will USCIS start accepting downgrades again anytime soon?
Is downgrading now a good choice in my case?
Thank you in advance.