You shouldn’t have to downgrade now. There is a 99% chance that you will get through by Oct 2021.
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yup very likely, dont change the boats now until Oct 21 if your PD is under 2012 for EB2 to get the true picture.
When calculating the Filing Date for Next Fiscal year in Oct for EB2 India, Will the downgrade(EB2 to EB3) numbers be taken into account and dates moved accordingly or the movement is based of Original numbers prior to downgrade ?
My PD is May 30 2013 and my Employer, a major bank did not and will not downgrade coming Oct. Reason for above question is to check the probability of Filing date reaching mid 2013 so i can do the 180 days and get out (as there are far more opportunities and flexibility on EAD). I have a new better opportunity who would start GC immediately but current process is taking a good 12 months + and might miss the boat.
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@anil_am22 could you please use a different color for the content changed? It’s hard to find what is changed today.
Anil,
Thanks for putting the GC estimator. It is really helpful.
I was wondering if you have looked at this site, that lists the EB2 to EB3 downgrades from Oct 1 onward? Do you think this would provide a reasonable estimate for the EB2 to EB3 downgrade % in your estimator?
https://public.tableau.com/profile/nagesh8819#!/vizhome/SRCCaseTracker-NewDashboard/SRCEB2-EB3
Can you share more info about what color and which change you are talking about?
If it is the graph, then I think the colors change automatically based on the number of items selected in the filter.
I am not able to understand this data. Can you share what it means and extract number of downgrades?
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If you select I-140 under “Application Type” on the right, it shows that 31,539 applications were filed for EB2 to EB3 downgrade between Oct 1st and now. From your earlier blog (Indian I-140 applications, unverified data), the total EB2s are roughly 22k in 2012, 22k in 2013 and 26k in 2014 - total about 70k.
Assuming only 2012 - 2014 EB2s downgraded and 2011s did not, 31,539 seems to be less than 50%
I am not sure of the reliability of the link and just wanted to know if you or any other reader had any inputs.
Thanks
Ok… in that case, you can choose the downgrade percentage as 50 or maybe 40% and then recalculate.
On green card date estimate app
The algorithm is the same and will give you a new graph based on your selections.
Both apps have the option to change the values that affect the VB dates. You can try anyone.
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@anil_am22 - My priority date is October 2013 in EB2 Category and my employer won’t downgrade to EB3. What are the chances of getting my GC by end of Fiscal year 2022?
Don’t worry right now, its way too early to say for 2013 right now. Wait till Oct 2021 to get a clear picture.
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this site prediction says for EB2 PD March 2016- chance of getting green card is in 2034. is that a reasonable prediction?
What all settings did you use to get to this date? Can you share the screenshot?
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@anil_am22 - It is showing me that by August 2022 the FAD will be current for me. Is that true or can it happen earlier than that? Also if it is showing August 2022 for the FAD to be current, so do you think by October- November 2021 the DOF will be current for me?
Thanks again!!
@anil_am22 , your estimator app may need some tuning. For example, If I increase the spill over count from 151K to 165K and leave all the other parameters as is, then instead of pulling the dates closer, it pushes it farther (for example, with default setting and a date of Feb 5, 2015 EB3, it shows that the date will be current in Feb 2022. If I change the spillover count to 165K, it pushes the date to April 2022).
I think that happens because the spillover distribution happens horizontally too and then more is given to EB2 as it is more backlogged.
The algorithm takes care of even distribution among EB2/EB3 and within backlogged countries like India & China.
Hi
My priority date is March 13, 2014. Due to employer change, we are filing new 140. I am eligible for EB2. But based on current trend EB3 seems promising. My company allows one time upgrade/down grade. Is it advisable to file in EB3 vs EB2? I am also thinking of going in premium processing.
Please suggest.
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If I were you I would go with EB3.
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