@anil_am22
As per the current predictions do you see these spillovers cause the PD’s to reach 2019 in 2022? If not then at least in the next few years? Or will folks who have PD’s in 2019 and later be waiting again in backlogs once this phase of spill overs are done?
@anil_am22
Thank you for timely updating the content. Much appreciate your efforts!
However, on the Oct 2021 predictions… I have a disagreement.
If we consider general momentum or say processing times we anticipate not many EB2 to EB3 downgrades to be approved by Sept 1st 2021 when DOS Charlie is ready to calculate dates for FY 2022
So, in that case original number/ including duplications remains in EB2 irrespective of i140 (as its downgrade, not shifting)
and if NOT most i140 are approved for EB to EB3 …pool remains ‘less crowdy’ when it comes to EB3 original.
So, My prediction would be
Oct 2021
Filing dates
- EB2 : Jan 2013
- EB3: June 2017
Suggestions and corrections requested
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Please do not fall for lawsuit by @gsiskind @ckuck or any of AILA member like RN Law firm … they are the ones who lobbied against FAIRNESS FOR HIGH SKILLED Immigrant bill HR1044, S386 while pretend to be helping EB Visa seekers and make them fall for unless advise.
for EB spillover, wastage they started this lawsuit drama ONLY to collect $$$$$$ from us high skilled immigrants as their favorite non-employment based mob of Diversity (DV visas) jackpot winners is not coming these days for selfies.
They will grab money, for lawsuit and they will come back with NO result as DOS has only 4 months left to start reconciling numbers for Oct-2021 new FY22 Visa filing dates. Lawsuit will never get hearing dates, and Kuck and company will come back in Sept-21 post VB is out saying …they delayed it…they did not release decision on time…fight is on …and blah blah
Agree with that. The only person who can help is Charlie who can put pressure on USCIS like he did a decade back.
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Thats too ambitious and wouldnt happen. The roadblock for that is if USCIS says in Sept it has wasted more than 50% of fiscal year 2021, it will not bump the dates higher in Oct 2022 and most likely remain there or worse retrogress too.
I second that. Charlie is a person who did this in July 2007 for all EB, in Sept 2012 for China and he might to something this time for all EB yet again if USCIS does not respect the numbers allotted.
Charlie taking interest in EB, FB categories along with DV is a big thing and hope he constantly creates a pressure on USCIS if at all they meet monthly!
This is the same Charlie, AILA kept cursing since long and now when he comes Live…we know the fact, who is trying for what !!!
I would disagree. If USCIS delays only i485 that could be the case…but here, when USCIS is even processing downgrades in much slower pace, which will not help Charlie get the exact NEW EB3 numbers unless i140s are approved for most downgrades.
So, when he open a box for Oct-21 VB filing dates, he looks at filings with approved i140 and the dates for Filing may cross even June 2017 for EB3…
If at all, with this wastage …it will help many to get EAD but not GC and they will be stuck in decade long backlog for Green card as numbers may not be available anymore beyond 140k overall post FY22.
I might be totally wrong, but yes that’s what I feel.
Anil, Your Oct '2021 predictions says 1 Jan 2016 DOF for EB3. Mine is 29 Feb 2016. Having 150K spillover and only 45% downgraded from EB2 to EB3 of 70K, do you still expect it can only reach 1st Jan 2016 for EB3? Basically I am looking for atleast my PD will be eligible for DOF in Oct '2021 bulletin
Your answers will help me a lot.
Even I am thinking on the same lines for Eb2 as my priority date is Oct-2013 but the prediction is DOF Aug 2013. I am not sure how the downgrades are going to affect all of the movement. We need to wait till October 2021 I guess.
Hope for the best for all of us!
Hi @sravikanti23 and @Amit_Pande
I suggest to stay positive and keep watching the app as it updates every month based on real movement by Charlie.
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With USCIS approving only 27k adjustments in 1st quarter of FY 2021, what do you think is a realistic number to use for “GC USCIS wastage” in the app?
Hi
My priority date is Jun, 2014 in EB2. Due to employer change, we are filing new 140. My company is not allowing downgrades. Please suggest Is it advisable to file in EB3 vs EB2?
You can file both EB2 and EB3 i140 with same PERM at same time.
Thanks anil for your response. My company will do in only one category. Which category do you suggest to go ahead… appreciate your feedback
Please use your best judgement in that case as nobody knows which queue will get current first for June 2014.
If I was in your place, I would file it in EB2 as going from EB2 to EB3 is easy in future than moving up from EB3 to EB2.
Thanks anil for response
Based of the best info i was able to collect from various forums and listening to hrs of attorneys talk about EB
- EB2 numbers would remain as is irrespective of the downgrades when deciding the DOF chart for Fiscal year in Oct.
- EB2 would get majority of spillover as EB1 being current and accounting for 50K petitions a year, (Approx 25K primary with an add on dependent) for 2011, 2012, 2013. As it stands now, anyone before the end of 2012 might be greened and DOF conservatively will be moved to the end of Dec 2012 in Oct 2021.
- Folks from 2012 and even 2011 who have PD current and switched boats will not file 485(Can’t have 2 485’s like 140 and have to stick to one and they will leave the first filed 485, which is from EB3 unless the dates of EB2 move too far ahead) when EB2 moves to Dec 2012, and creates an situation similar to what happened to China and India EB2 DOF movement which may move in mid 2022 fiscal year due to shortage of petitions.
- CO understands the downgrade and spoke about these on his calls and folks taking that option but have to see if he decides to take the call and move it right at the start of fiscal year or later during the months, so based on that EB2 DOF might be end of 2012 or end of 2013.
- With rapid movement of EB3, folks are now opting for premium which will dent the forward movement of EB3 DOF as those numbers are added for DOF calculation and might end up @ start of 2016 at the very best.
Do not think there will be LOT of wastage as how attorney’s projecting as CO clearly stated he has calls with USCIS and they talk numbers and based of him moving EB2 India and China DOF mid year, they are on track to fill and wastage could be worst case twice the % as last year which will put it at around 230K + being utilized.
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Start of 2016, meaning which month ? Jan/Feb/March ?
I guess, final GC wastage would be out from USCIS once final quarter report is out. So, by the time Dept. of state gets the exact wastage or report on most EB2 to EB3 approved downgrades it will be somewhere in 2nd quarter of FY2022. So, when CO works on Dates of filing for FY2022, he would have hardly any data on EB2 to EB3 downgrades as very few downgrades are opting for i140 and most have already got refusal notices on PP.
Even i485s are delayed, so getting exact dependent count before August 2021 is highly unlikely.
& CO would base his VB - Oct 2021 based on data he has by end of Aug 2021, as he has to draft, reconcile and finalize VB and publish by Mid Sept 2021.
So, CO would only have initial (original filing) EB2/ EB3 primary applicant data & very limited recent data by the time he works on DOF, FAD for VB Oct-2021.
My PD is 2014, But I have strong feeling date with these delays and quarterly result scene…DOF would still aggressively move to 2017 (EB3) and 2013 (EB2).
No doubt, there will be again a huge wait to actually get a Green Card, as numbers are only 122k (2021) & 150k (2022) with at least 20%-25% wastage (I guess) so no doubt FAD moves hardly till End 2012-Mid 2013 by end of FY22.
Lets hope for the best! Good luck to all!
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Hi @anil_am22 ,
My perm was approved on 20th May, 2021 with my current employer. We are in the process of filing the i-140. My PD is Feb, 2015 in EB-2 from my ex employer. Do I file the i-140 in EB-3 to take the advantage of Sep / Oct 2021 or file in EB-2 and then downgrade?Please help.
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