Thank you @anil_am22 for your response.
Based on another theory from other forums ā¦ USCIS would have pending 485 numbers(Both EB2I and EB3I) and would share that with CO for FY 2022 calculations. If 50% of EB2 downgraded with each having a dependent in 2011, 12, 13, 14. That would account for 100K petitions and even if 100K are available for EB3I, how would CO move EB3 and thats one of the reason i do not expect an aggressive EB3I movement.
Hi, My priority date is August-2014 on EB2. I have not applied for downgrade yet. So, if I apply for a downgrade now and get my new EB3-I140 by October and August-2014 PD gets current in November-2021, should I be able to apply for my green card (I-485) at that time? Thanks in advance!
August-2014(EB2) ::
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When ur dateās current in Date of Filing chart for EB2, file 485, AP for travel and EAD :: Hope this happens as this will be the fastest route to GC for ur date.
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When ur dateās current in Date of Filing chart for EB3, file 140(EB3), 485, AP for travel and EAD :: This will happen and will have EAD and AP as insurance but may have to wait longer for GC.
You are right. But we expect,
-lesser downgrades filed EB2 to EB3 & few rejected overall
- Most importantly, the 2nd quarter result will only be ready with numbers by July, and would need time to reconcile the derivatives and status check on i140 for those
- Major quarter is always post summer and I expect CO will have only numbers from Q1 & Partial Q2 to get to the numbers for DOF for Oct-21 VB which will be ready by sept 1st week to post it by Mid-sept
But what you have mentioned, will happen to some extent and yesā¦mid 1st Qt of FY22 dates may downgrade when CO has all numbers from FY21.
But for Oct-21 VB, i would stick with my wild guess 
at least those with dates before Mid-2017 should be able to file i484 as this may go away soon in Nov/Dec VB and they may even shut DOF use.
My priority date is October-2013 in EB2 category. Is there a chance that by end of FY 2022 this date will be current in FAD chart?
Yes, stay in EB2 queue till Oct 2021. You will come to know in end of Sep 2021 whats the plan for rest of the year to make the best judgement. Patience is what you need right now.
I agree with that, stay in EB2 queue and you know the near-accurate movement by Mid-Sept 2021. It at all EB2 does not become current, EB3 has better chances to get FAD to get current and you can file both downgrade and i485 concurrently.
Hi, my PD is EB2I May 31, 2011. If I file in October (assuming FAD reaches 2011), when will I get my EAD/GC?
Why does one have to wait longer in EB3 queue compared with EB2 with Aug 2014 PD?
Looks like you will be able to file it in July-21 itself, However when you get GC in hand is a real question and based on the recent updatesā¦you may get it in 2-3 months or it may even take longer! Unfortunately, we have no other better option than to āwaitā!
What happens if your date becomes current and you loose the job before you get GC card in hand? This problem hasnt happened much in past because people would wait max 1-2 months. It looks like the wait time for getting GC after being current could now well be 12 months given the volume and delayed processing.
My EB2 PD is May 2012 and I havenāt downgraded. With July bulletin predictions my date will be current as per EB3 FAD .
Should I initiate the downgrade process now or wait till Oct 21 ? Which step would get me too GC faster.
Also what do you guys approximately expect EB2 FAD to look like in Oct 21 ?
Try your self here:
I would recommend you wait till Oct 21. By the time your downgrade process gets completed, your EB2 queue would have moved substantially and if EB3 retrogresses, then you will need to deal with upgrade again. Quite positive you should get in EB2 queue in Oct because by then all downgrade numbers would have been calculated to move EB2 much faster than Eb3. In either case, Oct 2021 should give you a very clear picture on which queue to pursue.
@anil_am22 Iām always confused by the i140 numbers. So if for 2016 there were 50k i140 from Indians does that include only the primary or all the dependents too? So the backlog is actually 150k assuming an average family size of 3.
DOS is starting to get visibility into EB-3 India post-Oct 2021. During 1st quarter FY2021, more EB3 India applications were received than expected. Doesnāt look like EB-3 India filing date will go much beyond what it was in Oct over the summer.
I140 is only filed for the primary and hence the numbers that USCIS publishes do not count dependents.
So, you have to multiply it with average family size to reach actual GC required.
FY2022 will have Approx. 100K for EB2I and 50K for EB3I (~ 300K EB Visa #'s divided by each Employment category and country cap applied on the split and spilled over).
If we have about 50% downgraded from EB2 to EB3 for FY 12, 13, 14 as EB3 DOF moved to Jan 2015 last Oct, EB3 numbers will be EB3 + EB2(downgrades) which will surpass the EB2 VISA numbers and EB3 has half the total allocated numbers making EB2 folks getting GC faster.
Folks can file 140 in both EB2 and EB3 but can have a single 485 and anyone who downgraded will have 485 on EB3 count as they would have filed it concurrently.
If ur in EB2 and CO moves the DOF past ur date in Oct, itās better to stay put in EB2 for faster GC even when Final action date is current in EB3 as switching requires new 140 (Thereās nothing like downgrade as itās a new 140 petition against old labor) which takes time. If itās not FY2022, EB2 has better chances of getting greened as there will still be EB1 to EB2 spill over past 2022 assuming EB1 remains current for a few years past 2022.