@Yesu_Paadam So you are saying that there will be less number of visa available in EB3 because of downgrades/country quota, etc. But if someone’s priority date is August 2014 their date will likely be current in FAD in EB3 by October or November 2022 compared to EB2 as EB2 FAD likely won’t move up until 2014 Aug in Oct or Nov FY22.
If less number of visas are available in EB3, then the dates won’t move by many number of years which happened in FY21 – it will likely move by 2 years (up to early 2016) and anything beyond that would be a huge bonus. EB2 should also move but not beyond 2015. This is what I’m guestimating.
Great! But Cyrus must be sad with such a aggressive forward movement!
Another scam we will be seeing is FALSE LAWSUIT, DOS has clearly said that FAD GC issuance will strictly go with PRIORITY DATES, so S.386/ HR1044 & #EAGLE Act opposer racist Greg Siskind’s claim of lawsuit helping plaintiff is just another lie.
Also, if lawsuit is getting filed in ealy July, on what basis anyone is expecting court order issuance before Sept-21? There are so many lawsuits pending for verdict since more than 8 months now!
This is just another scam, and when it is operated by racist Greg Siskind…This is just a balloon and we should not promote it.
For FY2021, CO moved the dates based of the initial 140 number’s. EB2I has 25K avg an year compared to EB3’s 5K avg a year for 10, 11, 12, 13, 14. (We had similar spillover last year with EB2 getting ~100K and EB3 getting ~50K and assuming each will have a dependent, based of initial 140 numbers, moved ~ 2 year (25K(140’s per year) X 2(# of dependents X 2(years)) for EB2 and 5 years (5K(140’s per year) X 2(# of dependents X 5(years)) for EB3.
Based on above, I expect EB2 DOF to move to Q3 2013 and EB3 to remain where it was last Oct @ Jan 2015 or min movement as the downgrades from EB2 to EB3 will have 140’s cleared as July bulletin’s EB3 FAD is already @ Jan 2013 pushing folks to opt for premium and adding to EB3 count and also we hear talks about huge GC # wastage from FY 2021 spill over which we have not taken into account for this math and it could make this movement an uphill climb.
If things work out in coming OCT and EB2 moves past PD in DOF, stay put even if current in EB3 FAD as any1 downgrading from EB2 to EB3 coming OCT are at the tail end of the line and i’m pretty sure they have no way to get 140 cleared and get a VISA # assigned from FY2022 spill over.
Downgrade if PD not in EB2 DOF and past PD in EB3 DOF to get EAD/AP as insurance but eventually may have to move back to EB2 for GC
Suggest law suit and charge, to have courts intervene
Suggest Interfile to EB2 and charge in a year, as EB3 downgrades may never see day of light past FY 2022.
All remember the story of a Duck giving Golden egg and H1-B is that Duck for the immigration attorneys and non want to kill that by letting H1-B’s get GC. I guess immigration attorneys were the saddest when they saw dates move forward last Oct and they sketched a plan to side with H1-B pretending to kill the Duck but with the intention to not have more folks get GC overloading and blaming USCIS and charge every step of the way and eventually saving as many H-1B to continue feeding them these golden eggs.
Good explanation! Could you tell me where did you get the EB2 and EB3 numbers (100k and 50k) from? I was under the impression that both EB2 and EB3 get equal splits?
Based on your calculations, where do you expect the FAD to be in Oct? (Assuming it comes out mid Sept, when all the wasted GC numbers are still not known)
Given that the COVID situation around the world is still quite terrible and many consulates are still not processing FB immigrant visas, are we expecting FB to EB spillover in October 2022 as well? Just a thought.
Thanks for the detail calculation here!
Atleast by this it looks like for me EB2 PD Oct 2013 can get current in FY 2022. Also taking downgrades into consideration.
Downgrades will impact EB3 going forward but will not impact EB2 calculation as the EB2 number’s still the same. It’s just the application is counted against both.
so Q3 2013 for EB2 is best possible scenario
NOTE :: Expect something similar to what happened on EB2 this year for FY 2022 where DOF will move mid year due to lack of demand as folks who downgraded will not file 485 in EB2 as they should have already sent that with EB3 downgrade.
So by looking at the current JULY 21 Visa Bulletin and all the awesome calculations here, is there any chance to be able to file I-485 for EB2 PD of 15 July 2014, during the most anticipated October 2021 Visa Bulletin(with Date for Filling allowed)?
Anyone here have an idea?
A law firm requested the 485’s received for FY 2021 and number approved so far under freedom of information act and once those numbers are out, we could better guess the dates.
USCIS was unable to handle the influx of volume when dates moved last Oct and CO mentioned this on one of his calls and we could see that based of time taken to send the receipt notices. My personal thinking is that CO would not be moving like last year in OCT clogging the system but a stead move on DOF will continue like we see now through the rest of FY2022.
It may get current even before that, but the main question is whether USCIS will be able to adjudicate the 485 and issue GC for that date. Hope it is able to, or else it will be a long wait again after 2022.
OCT EB3 Data movement :: Now that EB3 FAD moving at a rapid pace, more ppl would try for premium adding to EB3 queue slowing it down. For an EB3 140 petition which already has an EB2 approved, USCIS pulls the Old PERM form DOL. USCIS would have PERM for most who applied in OCT rush and they would accept premium. Back in Feb/Mar folks were guessing it might move to 2017/18 but now, it would be difficult to even reach 2016 and may stay same as last Oct @ 2015.