I Just hope that the year which EB3 had (FY 2021), with such a rapid movement, same would be there for EB2 (FY 2022), starting with Oct 2021 VB. At-least EB2 movement should be till Q3 2014 I would think.
Numbers released from USCIS account to approx. 45K GC issued for EB in first two quarterâs.
This number means some Good news and Bad news.
Good News :: Demand for ROW is low and spill over could be more than speculated for most backlogged countries for FY 2021.
The way it works is 262K available VISA number are divided across the EB categories and the spill over happens if the allocated ROW has no demand causing the spill over. As an Example, If a petition from ROW and EB India are applied, ROW gets the preference as EB India only comes into play after all ROW petitions have VISA number allocated.
Bad News :: Biden administration which is pro-immigration is prioritizing to keep families together and unfortunately employment falls at the very last in fourth preference in the order of priority.
Time is of the essence and do not believe USCIS has the bandwidth to come close to using all of 262 K but my guess is it will definitely be faster than what we saw in first 2 quarters.
USCIS will definitely cross 200K for FY2021 but unfortunately will still end up wasting 50K+ Visa numbers.
OCT 2021 for FY 2022 :
EB2 India :: Q4(Dec) 2012
EB3 India :: Q1(Jan) 2015
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You really have high hopes of 200K usages for FY2021. For first 2 quarters, USCIS has processed only 45K EB petitions. The max they can process for the next 2 quarters is 50K each. That makes the total about 145K petitions. They will waste more than 100K visas.
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YepâŚafter Charlesâs estimation yesterday, it does look like they are on the way to waste more than 100k GC numbers unless something changes their heart!
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One more important thing to notice regarding the i485 approvals is that the i140 associated should be approved.
As most of the EB2 to EB3 downgrades are expected to be approved in the third and fourth quarter, the I485 applications would be completed and eligible for i485 approval. I expect the 3rd and 4th quarter should have good number of 485 approvals.
But still there would be lot of VISA numbers wastage for sure âŚ
Any thoughts in this direction ?
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A draft is included in the link. Please write to your representative.
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Guys,
With out any exception, everyone of you please write and help all the people waiting for the Green card.
It is a humble request.
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@anil_am22 Please have a timestamp and reason for update. we want to know what did you chnage in page.
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Yes, @Anil_Kumar14 if you could color code the changes then it would be great!
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@dumchick and @Sujeet_Kumar_Singh
Only the clarification for best, average and worst case was added today as lot of people asked about it.
The predicted dates remain same.
They might change based on how much does actual Aug bulletin moves.
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Please have a calculation for 100% spill over wastage too.
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In the estimator with default settings EB-3 India for the PD of Jan 2017 jumps a whole decade to 2031 compared to PD of Jan 2016 is that expected? (I have an EB2 right now but will downgrade if needed later)
You can do it yourself. The app is configurable.
The way things are going even Jan 2013 will go all the way till 2031 if all additional GCs allocated goes wasted. Stay put till Oct 2021 to decide what to do but current situation is very gloomy.
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My PD Date is 29th Feb 2016. Can I expect DOF in FY2022 ?
What you think?
I see 1-5% of chances as dems planning to encourage illegal.
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My PD date is Jul 2015 on EB2 and my employer has agreed to downgrade to EB3 just today.
Is it worth it to apply for downgrade now or wait until Oct21?
If downgraded, is there a hope for dof to reach Jul2015 in October ?
TIA and really appreciate inputs.
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The downgrade currently takes 6 months. If you canât apply in PP. I suggest you wait for Oct 21 and then decide. The app is confusing on this website, for worst case itâs showing a retrogression for sep 21, I am not sure how that is possible since Charlie said that is not in the near future. I am not sure if the bill will pass till that time or not
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Thank you for the response.
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Per the latest Chat with Charlie, he doesnât see Oct 2021 bulletin dates going beyond 1 Jan 2016 when someone asked the question. Can someone validate ?
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